Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 0.689150 0.793771 0.905624 1.033735 1.176026 1.328835 1.504958
2025-02-16 0.494889 0.628037 0.781238 0.969074 1.191614 1.445273 1.754590
2025-02-23 0.348826 0.489631 0.664232 0.893167 1.181632 1.529091 1.974897
2025-03-02 0.239757 0.375120 0.556746 0.811728 1.153138 1.586716 2.170130
2025-03-09 0.176560 0.307912 0.498272 0.783322 1.186835 1.724054 2.477560
2025-03-16 0.127919 0.250308 0.442416 0.749281 1.207841 1.846323 2.777110
2025-03-23 0.100880 0.220006 0.421222 0.761651 1.294786 2.065822 3.226521
2025-03-30 0.071789 0.177806 0.372544 0.723663 1.302049 2.172722 3.527827
2025-04-06 0.053001 0.149038 0.340384 0.706601 1.338364 2.324090 3.903921
2025-04-13 0.038262 0.123337 0.307864 0.682992 1.360257 2.454233 4.257213
2025-04-20 0.029817 0.108952 0.294082 0.690561 1.434388 2.670893 4.755863
2025-04-27 0.022664 0.094758 0.277257 0.689281 1.492268 2.865068 5.231422
2025-05-04 0.016802 0.081682 0.260558 0.687427 1.552543 3.074107 5.755323
2025-05-11 0.012455 0.070876 0.246395 0.688546 1.618763 3.299059 6.321277
2025-05-18 0.008453 0.058257 0.223666 0.666628 1.637835 3.443815 6.764440
2025-05-25 0.005254 0.045680 0.196406 0.628454 1.619141 3.519245 7.094990
2025-06-01 0.003660 0.039077 0.184568 0.625225 1.672117 3.729011 7.669664
2025-06-08 0.002390 0.032458 0.169966 0.611799 1.701316 3.896078 8.178706
2025-06-15 0.001828 0.029888 0.168736 0.634081 1.811903 4.225903 8.995995
2025-06-22 0.001083 0.024028 0.152249 0.610042 1.814118 4.344727 9.436859
2025-06-29 0.000675 0.020190 0.141994 0.601765 1.851731 4.535520 10.019120
2025-07-06 0.000385 0.016503 0.130225 0.585952 1.868885 4.685373 10.531630
2025-07-13 0.000257 0.014751 0.126903 0.596461 1.951909 4.975031 11.320531